6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear — Monte Carlo
BaseBullBear
Rate Environment
FiscalData Treasury · Daily
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10Y Treasury
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Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
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Daily Briefing
State Intelligence
Top 10 states · sorted by permit volume
National Permit Trend12-month rolling — Census Bureau
Top States by Permits
Saved Briefings
Data Sources
Census Bureau
Building permits survey · Monthly
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment & unemployment · Monthly
FHFA
House Price Index · Quarterly
Bureau of Economic Analysis
GDP by state · Quarterly
Methodology
ConstructAIQ
The Intelligence Layer for American Construction
v1.0 · Phases 1–11 · Apple HIG Redesign
Labor Intelligence
Construction market signals — updating
Labor tab upgrade in progress
JOLTS quit rate · ECI wages · Trade wage heatmap · CLSI index
6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear scenarios — Monte Carlo projection
BaseBullBear
○ Proxy — derived from FHFA HPI + BLS unemployment + Census permits. High uncertainty beyond 90 days.
Key Assumption
Fed funds rate holds at current level through Q3
Primary Risk
Mortgage rate spike above 7.5% would suppress demand
Confidence
Medium — 3 proxy inputs, 1 direct