Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
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Daily Briefing
Top States by Permits
Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
Leads permit activity by 2–4 months. Higher = more optimistic buyers.
Weaker CAD → cheaper Canadian lumber → lower U.S. builder costs.
Saved Briefings
Data Sources
| Source | Freq | Lag | Auth |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLS JOLTS | Monthly | 45–60 days | Key* |
| BLS PPI | Monthly | 2 weeks | Key |
| BLS OES | Annual | 6 months | Key |
| FRED PERMIT | Monthly | 5 weeks | Open |
| FiscalData 10Y | Monthly | Same-day | Open |
| Fannie Mae HPSI | Monthly | 3 weeks | Open |
| SAM.gov | Daily | Same-day | Key |
| USASpending | Monthly | 30 days | Open |
| BEA Income | Annual | 6 months | Open |
| EIA RECS | Triennial | Static | N/A |
KPI Definitions
- Permit Pulse (YoY%)
- Year-over-year change in total US building permits. Source: Census Bureau via FRED PERMIT. Leads construction starts by 1–3 months.
- 10Y Treasury Rate
- Average interest rate on Treasury Notes. Source: FiscalData. Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
- Labor Stress (JOLTS Quit Rate)
- Quit rate for Construction (NAICS 23) from BLS JOLTS. Seasonally adjusted. Higher quit rate = tighter labor market = upward wage pressure.
- Material Pressure (PPI Composite)
- Indexed composite of BLS PPI for lumber (WPU0811), steel (WPU101), and gypsum (WPU132). Base = 100 at 24 months prior.
- Buyer Sentiment (HPSI)
- Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index. Net percentage saying it’s a “good time to buy.” Leads permit activity by 2–4 months.
- Federal Pipeline
- Count of active pre-solicitation notices on SAM.gov for NAICS 236–238. Represents committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.
CLSI Methodology
The Construction Labor Stress Index is a proprietary ConstructAIQ composite (0–100) from BLS JOLTS data for Construction (NAICS 23). Current version uses quit rate as primary input.
Thresholds: <2.0% quit rate → 20 (LOW) · 2.0–2.5% → 50 (MODERATE) · 2.5–3.0% → 70 (HIGH) · >3.0% → 90 (CRITICAL)
Note: BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted series subject to 2–3 month publication lag.
Forecast Model
The 6-Month Permit Forecast uses Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) with inputs: trailing 24-month permit trend, 10Y Treasury yield, Fannie Mae HPSI, and seasonal adjustment factors.
Outputs: Bull (75th percentile), Base (50th), Bear (25th) permit volume projections. Confidence level shown in Daily Briefing header.
Composite of JOLTS quit rate, ECI wage growth, and vacancy-to-hire ratio for NAICS 23 Construction. Higher = tighter labor market.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey — Construction sector. Seasonally adjusted, thousands.
| Trade | Median Annual | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Carpenters | $56,800 | +3.2% |
| Electricians | $61,590 | +4.1% |
| Plumbers | $63,420 | +3.8% |
| Iron/Rebar Workers | $57,600 | +2.9% |
| Roofers | $52,980 | +2.4% |
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics · Annual (May 2024 estimates)
Rising ECI compresses builder margins 1–2 quarters forward. Annotation line at 4.0% YoY margin compression threshold.
Model material cost impact on a standard 2,000 sq ft single-family build. Drag sliders to adjust tariff scenarios.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis CAGDP2 county GDP estimates.
States where home prices are outpacing income growth — a leading indicator of demand softening 6–12 months forward.
Income growth: BEA CAINC1 personal income per capita. HPI: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, annual % change.
Renovation opportunity by census region. Higher score = older housing stock = stronger retrofit and remodel market.
Source: EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020. Score = composite of housing age distribution and energy retrofit indicators.
Mortgage delinquency rates lead construction demand by 6–12 months. Rising delinquencies signal credit tightening and reduced buyer capacity.
Monitor — delinquencies tracking slightly up but below stress thresholds. Rate environment is the primary demand risk for 2026 H1.
Source: Fannie Mae Single-Family Loan Performance Data · Q4 2025. Next update: Q1 2026 data expected May 2026.
Loading federal opportunities…
24-month history. Source: Census Bureau Building Permits Survey via FRED PERMIT series.
Active pre-solicitation notices for construction contracts. These represent committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.
Federal construction contract awards since IIJA passage (Nov 2021). Top states by total awarded value.