6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear — Monte Carlo
BaseBullBear
Rate Environment FiscalData Treasury · Daily
10Y Treasury Loading…

Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.

Daily Briefing

State Intelligence Top 10 states · sorted by permit volume
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National Permit Trend12-month rolling — Census Bureau

Top States by Permits

    Rate Environment FiscalData Treasury · Daily

    Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.

    Material Cost Pressure BLS PPI · Monthly
    Lumber Steel Gypsum
    Buyer Sentiment Fannie Mae HPSI · Monthly
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    Leads permit activity by 2–4 months. Higher = more optimistic buyers.

    Tariff & Trade Impact FiscalData Exchange Rates · Daily
    USD / CAD
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    Weaker CAD → cheaper Canadian lumber → lower U.S. builder costs.

    Saved Briefings

    Data Sources

    Source Freq Lag Auth
    BLS JOLTSMonthly45–60 daysKey*
    BLS PPIMonthly2 weeksKey
    BLS OESAnnual6 monthsKey
    FRED PERMITMonthly5 weeksOpen
    FiscalData 10YMonthlySame-dayOpen
    Fannie Mae HPSIMonthly3 weeksOpen
    SAM.govDailySame-dayKey
    USASpendingMonthly30 daysOpen
    BEA IncomeAnnual6 monthsOpen
    EIA RECSTriennialStaticN/A

    KPI Definitions

    Permit Pulse (YoY%)
    Year-over-year change in total US building permits. Source: Census Bureau via FRED PERMIT. Leads construction starts by 1–3 months.
    10Y Treasury Rate
    Average interest rate on Treasury Notes. Source: FiscalData. Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
    Labor Stress (JOLTS Quit Rate)
    Quit rate for Construction (NAICS 23) from BLS JOLTS. Seasonally adjusted. Higher quit rate = tighter labor market = upward wage pressure.
    Material Pressure (PPI Composite)
    Indexed composite of BLS PPI for lumber (WPU0811), steel (WPU101), and gypsum (WPU132). Base = 100 at 24 months prior.
    Buyer Sentiment (HPSI)
    Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index. Net percentage saying it’s a “good time to buy.” Leads permit activity by 2–4 months.
    Federal Pipeline
    Count of active pre-solicitation notices on SAM.gov for NAICS 236–238. Represents committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.

    CLSI Methodology

    The Construction Labor Stress Index is a proprietary ConstructAIQ composite (0–100) from BLS JOLTS data for Construction (NAICS 23). Current version uses quit rate as primary input.

    Thresholds: <2.0% quit rate → 20 (LOW) · 2.0–2.5% → 50 (MODERATE) · 2.5–3.0% → 70 (HIGH) · >3.0% → 90 (CRITICAL)

    Note: BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted series subject to 2–3 month publication lag.

    Forecast Model

    The 6-Month Permit Forecast uses Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) with inputs: trailing 24-month permit trend, 10Y Treasury yield, Fannie Mae HPSI, and seasonal adjustment factors.

    Outputs: Bull (75th percentile), Base (50th), Bear (25th) permit volume projections. Confidence level shown in Daily Briefing header.

    ConstructAIQ
    The Intelligence Layer for American Construction
    v3.1 · Sprints 1–11 · 10 API sources · 6 tabs · Full Interactivity
    Construction Labor Stress Index CLSI ConstructAIQ Proprietary Index · BLS · Monthly
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    Awaiting BLS data…

    Composite of JOLTS quit rate, ECI wage growth, and vacancy-to-hire ratio for NAICS 23 Construction. Higher = tighter labor market.

    JOLTS Labor Flow · NAICS 23 BLS JOLTS · Monthly

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey — Construction sector. Seasonally adjusted, thousands.

    Trade Wage Snapshot BLS OES · Annual
    Trade Median Annual YoY
    Carpenters$56,800+3.2%
    Electricians$61,590+4.1%
    Plumbers$63,420+3.8%
    Iron/Rebar Workers$57,600+2.9%
    Roofers$52,980+2.4%

    Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics · Annual (May 2024 estimates)

    Employment Cost Index BLS ECI · Quarterly

    Rising ECI compresses builder margins 1–2 quarters forward. Annotation line at 4.0% YoY margin compression threshold.

    6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear scenarios — Monte Carlo projection
    BaseBullBear
    ○ Proxy — derived from FHFA HPI + BLS unemployment + Census permits. High uncertainty beyond 90 days.
    Key Assumption
    Fed funds rate holds at current level through Q3
    Primary Risk
    Mortgage rate spike above 7.5% would suppress demand
    Confidence
    High — 5 direct signals
    Tariff Impact Estimator ConstructAIQ Intelligence · BLS PPI + FiscalData

    Model material cost impact on a standard 2,000 sq ft single-family build. Drag sliders to adjust tariff scenarios.

    10%
    0%25%50%
    25%
    0%25%50%
    Lumber Impact
    +$2,800
    Steel Impact
    +$4,200
    Total Added
    +$7,000
    ' + (window._ppiLumber ? 'Based on current PPI data. ' : 'Based on 2024 baseline. ') + ' ~15,000 board-feet lumber ($6/bf baseline), ~3.5 tons structural steel ($900/ton baseline). Cost pass-through = 85%.
    County Economic Output BEA CAGDP2 · 2023 County GDP

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis CAGDP2 county GDP estimates.

    County Affordability Pressure BEA Personal Income × FHFA HPI · Annual

    States where home prices are outpacing income growth — a leading indicator of demand softening 6–12 months forward.

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    Income growth: BEA CAINC1 personal income per capita. HPI: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, annual % change.

    Renovation Demand Index EIA RECS 2020 · ConstructAIQ Intelligence · Annual

    Renovation opportunity by census region. Higher score = older housing stock = stronger retrofit and remodel market.

    Source: EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020. Score = composite of housing age distribution and energy retrofit indicators.

    Credit Cycle Detector Fannie Mae Loan Performance · Q4 2025

    Mortgage delinquency rates lead construction demand by 6–12 months. Rising delinquencies signal credit tightening and reduced buyer capacity.

    30-Day DLQ
    1.82%
    ▲ +0.03pp QoQ
    60-Day DLQ
    0.63%
    ▲ +0.02pp QoQ
    90+ Day DLQ
    0.41%
    ▲ +0.01pp QoQ
    Credit Cycle Phase
    Late Expansion
    NEUTRAL
    STABLE trend

    Monitor — delinquencies tracking slightly up but below stress thresholds. Rate environment is the primary demand risk for 2026 H1.

    Source: Fannie Mae Single-Family Loan Performance Data · Q4 2025. Next update: Q1 2026 data expected May 2026.

    Federal Opportunities Recent construction bids

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    AI Pipeline Intelligence Score Cloudflare Workers AI · Daily
    Analyzing federal pipeline…
    Building Permit Trend U.S. Census Bureau · Monthly

    24-month history. Source: Census Bureau Building Permits Survey via FRED PERMIT series.

    Federal Construction Pipeline SAM.gov · NAICS 236–238 · Live
    Active Pre-solicitations

    Active pre-solicitation notices for construction contracts. These represent committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.

    Top 5 States by Federal Pipeline Activity
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    IIJA Infrastructure Spending USASpending.gov · No auth required · Monthly

    Federal construction contract awards since IIJA passage (Nov 2021). Top states by total awarded value.

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