6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear — Monte Carlo
BaseBullBear
Rate Environment FiscalData Treasury · Daily
— 10Y Treasury Loading…

Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.

—

Daily Briefing

State Intelligence Top 10 states · sorted by permit volume
Filter:
National Permit Trend12-month rolling — Census Bureau

Top States by Permits

    Rate Environment FiscalData Treasury · Daily

    Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.

    Material Cost Pressure BLS PPI · Monthly
    Lumber Steel Gypsum
    Buyer Sentiment Fannie Mae HPSI · Monthly
    —
    Loading…

    Leads permit activity by 2–4 months. Higher = more optimistic buyers.

    Tariff & Trade Impact FiscalData Exchange Rates · Daily
    USD / CAD
    —
    Loading…

    Weaker CAD → cheaper Canadian lumber → lower U.S. builder costs.

    Saved Briefings

    Data Sources

    C
    Census Bureau
    Building permits survey · Monthly
    Direct
    B
    Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Employment & unemployment · Monthly
    Direct
    F
    FHFA
    House Price Index · Quarterly
    Proxy
    E
    Bureau of Economic Analysis
    GDP by state · Quarterly
    Proxy

    Methodology

    ConstructAIQ
    The Intelligence Layer for American Construction
    v1.0 · Phases 1–11 · Apple HIG Redesign
    Construction Labor Stress Index CLSI ConstructAIQ Proprietary Index · BLS · Monthly
    —
    Loading…
    Awaiting BLS data…

    Composite of JOLTS quit rate, ECI wage growth, and vacancy-to-hire ratio for NAICS 23 Construction. Higher = tighter labor market.

    JOLTS Labor Flow · NAICS 23 BLS JOLTS · Monthly

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey — Construction sector. Seasonally adjusted, thousands.

    Trade Wage Snapshot BLS OES · Annual
    Trade Median Annual YoY
    Carpenters$56,800+3.2%
    Electricians$61,590+4.1%
    Plumbers$63,420+3.8%
    Iron/Rebar Workers$57,600+2.9%
    Roofers$52,980+2.4%

    Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics · Annual (May 2024 estimates)

    Employment Cost Index BLS ECI · Quarterly

    Rising ECI compresses builder margins 1–2 quarters forward. Annotation line at 4.0% YoY margin compression threshold.

    6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear scenarios — Monte Carlo projection
    BaseBullBear
    ○ Proxy — derived from FHFA HPI + BLS unemployment + Census permits. High uncertainty beyond 90 days.
    Key Assumption
    Fed funds rate holds at current level through Q3
    Primary Risk
    Mortgage rate spike above 7.5% would suppress demand
    Confidence
    High — 5 direct signals
    Tariff Impact Estimator ConstructAIQ Intelligence · BLS PPI + FiscalData

    Model material cost impact on a standard 2,000 sq ft single-family build. Drag sliders to adjust tariff scenarios.

    10%
    0%25%50%
    25%
    0%25%50%
    Lumber Impact
    +$2,800
    Steel Impact
    +$4,200
    Total Added
    +$7,000
    Based on 2,000 sq ft SFR: ~15,000 board-feet lumber ($6/bf baseline), ~3.5 tons structural steel ($900/ton baseline). Cost pass-through = 85%.
    Federal Opportunities Recent construction bids

    Loading federal opportunities…

    AI Pipeline Intelligence Score Cloudflare Workers AI · Daily
    Analyzing federal pipeline…
    Building Permit Trend U.S. Census Bureau · Monthly

    24-month history. Source: Census Bureau Building Permits Survey via FRED PERMIT series.

    Federal Construction Pipeline SAM.gov · NAICS 236–238 · Live
    —
    Active Pre-solicitations

    Active pre-solicitation notices for construction contracts. These represent committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.

    Top 5 States by Federal Pipeline Activity
    Loading state breakdown…
    IIJA Infrastructure Spending USASpending.gov · No auth required · Monthly

    Federal construction contract awards since IIJA passage (Nov 2021). Top states by total awarded value.

    Loading IIJA data…