6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear — Monte Carlo
BaseBullBear
Rate Environment FiscalData Treasury · Daily
— 10Y Treasury Loading…

Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.

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Daily Briefing

State Intelligence Top 10 states · sorted by permit volume
Filter:
National Permit Trend12-month rolling — Census Bureau

Top States by Permits

    Saved Briefings

    Data Sources

    C
    Census Bureau
    Building permits survey · Monthly
    Direct
    B
    Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Employment & unemployment · Monthly
    Direct
    F
    FHFA
    House Price Index · Quarterly
    Proxy
    E
    Bureau of Economic Analysis
    GDP by state · Quarterly
    Proxy

    Methodology

    ConstructAIQ
    The Intelligence Layer for American Construction
    v1.0 · Phases 1–11 · Apple HIG Redesign
    Construction Labor Stress Index (CLSI) Composite signal — JOLTS quit rate · ECI wages · Unemployment
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    Quit Rate —
    ECI Wages —
    Unemployment —

    ⊙ Proxy composite — JOLTS Construction Quit Rate (BLS) + ECI Private Construction (BLS) + National Unemployment (BLS). Higher score = tighter labor market.

    JOLTS Labor Flows — Construction Hires · Separations · Quits · Job Openings (monthly, trailing 24 mo)

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey — Construction sector series. Seasonally adjusted, thousands.

    Construction Materials Cost Pressure PPI — Lumber · Insulation · Gypsum (YoY % change, trailing 24 mo)

    Source: BLS Producer Price Index. WPU0811 Lumber, PCU3261403261401 Insulation, WPU132 Gypsum. YoY % change.

    6-Month Permit ForecastBase · Bull · Bear scenarios — Monte Carlo projection
    BaseBullBear
    ○ Proxy — derived from FHFA HPI + BLS unemployment + Census permits. High uncertainty beyond 90 days.
    Key Assumption
    Fed funds rate holds at current level through Q3
    Primary Risk
    Mortgage rate spike above 7.5% would suppress demand
    Confidence
    Medium — 3 proxy inputs, 1 direct