Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
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Daily Briefing
Top States by Permits
Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
Leads permit activity by 2–4 months. Higher = more optimistic buyers.
Weaker CAD → cheaper Canadian lumber → lower U.S. builder costs.
Negative 2Y–10Y spread = yield inversion = recession signal. Drives construction financing costs.
Indexed to 100 at 12 months prior. Reads from BLS batch data — no additional API call.
Tracks Canadian lumber import cost exposure. Higher CAD/USD = more expensive Canadian imports.
Baseline: $28,500 lumber intensity per start (BEA I-O). Elasticity: −0.31% permits per 1% tariff (NAHB). Margin erosion: 0.18% per 1% tariff.
Saved Briefings
Data Sources
| Source | Freq | Lag | Auth |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLS JOLTS | Monthly | 45–60 days | Key* |
| BLS PPI | Monthly | 2 weeks | Key |
| BLS OES | Annual | 6 months | Key |
| FRED PERMIT | Monthly | 5 weeks | Open |
| FiscalData 10Y | Monthly | Same-day | Open |
| Fannie Mae HPSI | Monthly | 3 weeks | Open |
| SAM.gov | Daily | Same-day | Key |
| USASpending | Monthly | 30 days | Open |
| BEA Income | Annual | 6 months | Open |
| EIA RECS | Triennial | Static | N/A |
KPI Definitions
- Permit Pulse (YoY%)
- Year-over-year change in total US building permits. Source: Census Bureau via FRED PERMIT. Leads construction starts by 1–3 months.
- 10Y Treasury Rate
- Average interest rate on Treasury Notes. Source: FiscalData. Drives 30-year mortgage pricing, builder financing costs, and lot acquisition credit.
- Labor Stress (JOLTS Quit Rate)
- Quit rate for Construction (NAICS 23) from BLS JOLTS. Seasonally adjusted. Higher quit rate = tighter labor market = upward wage pressure.
- Material Pressure (PPI Composite)
- Indexed composite of BLS PPI for lumber (WPU0811), steel (WPU101), and gypsum (WPU132). Base = 100 at 24 months prior.
- Buyer Sentiment (HPSI)
- Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index. Net percentage saying it’s a “good time to buy.” Leads permit activity by 2–4 months.
- Federal Pipeline
- Count of active pre-solicitation notices on SAM.gov for NAICS 236–238. Represents committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.
CLSI Methodology
The Construction Labor Stress Index is a proprietary ConstructAIQ composite (0–100) from three BLS inputs for Construction (NAICS 23): JOLTS quit rate (33%), ECI wage growth (33%), and vacancy-to-hire ratio (34%). Higher = tighter labor market.
Scoring: Each input scored 0–100 then weighted. Quit rate: <1.8% → 20, 1.8–2.5% → 40, 2.5–3.5% → 65, ≥3.5% → 90 · ECI: <2.5% → 18, 2.5–4.0% → 38, 4.0–5.5% → 65, ≥5.5% → 88 · V2H: <0.8x → 20, 0.8–1.0x → 35, 1.0–1.2x → 50, 1.2–1.5x → 70, ≥1.5x → 90
Note: BLS JOLTS seasonally adjusted series subject to 2–3 month publication lag.
Forecast Model
The 6-Month Permit Forecast uses Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) with inputs: trailing 24-month permit trend, 10Y Treasury yield, Fannie Mae HPSI, and seasonal adjustment factors.
Outputs: Bull (75th percentile), Base (50th), Bear (25th) permit volume projections. Confidence level shown in Daily Briefing header.
Labor Intelligence
Score = base(62) + volume bonus + momentum bonus. Derived from SAM.gov pre-solicitation count and trend direction.
Model material cost impact on a standard 2,000 sq ft single-family build. Drag sliders to adjust tariff scenarios.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis CAGDP2 county GDP estimates.
States where home prices are outpacing income growth — a leading indicator of demand softening 6–12 months forward.
Income growth: BEA CAINC1 personal income per capita. HPI: FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, annual % change.
Renovation opportunity by census region. Higher score = older housing stock = stronger retrofit and remodel market.
Source: EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020. Score = composite of housing age distribution and energy retrofit indicators.
Mortgage delinquency rates lead construction demand by 6–12 months. Rising delinquencies signal credit tightening and reduced buyer capacity.
Monitor — delinquencies tracking slightly up but below stress thresholds. Rate environment is the primary demand risk for 2026 H1.
Source: Fannie Mae Single-Family Loan Performance Data · Q4 2025. Next update: Q1 2026 data expected May 2026.
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FRED MORTGAGE30US. Weekly survey of lenders by Freddie Mac.
FRED HOUST (total) + HOUST1F (single-family). 24-month SAAR with 3-month moving average.
24-month history. Source: Census Bureau Building Permits Survey via FRED PERMIT series.
Active pre-solicitation notices for construction contracts. These represent committed federal demand 6–24 months forward.
NAICS 236–238 construction obligations since IIJA (Nov 2021). Top 10 states by award value.